Public Google My Maps titled ‘Sahel’ (https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1Zbp64V3wZgU6XWORPKHlFHpTRfViJZo). No author is named on the map; it is the ‘Sahel’ map in Sahel Monitor’s pinned map index (post 314), so it is the channel admin’s own estimate (post 431 calls the ISSP/ISWAP districts ‘educated estimates’). Last edit seen: 21 Oct 2026, 14:57 PDT; it appears to be edited almost daily. It colours placemarks by holder: about 640 points and polygons in 10 layers, with no sources, no dates and no change log. Only 5 placemarks carry any description.
Origin: Anonymous (Sahel Monitor admin)
Grade (02 Source Grading Method)
- Admiralty reliability: C · Score: 58% · Split: general presence (a group operates in the area): 62%; current control of a specific town: 49%. 15 (independent anonymous) + 8 (aggregator) + 6 (located but undated and unsourced) + 22 (spot-checks) + 7 (admin corrects errors in the channel; the map has no change log) = 58. Split: general presence 62 (garrisons and group areas are almost always where it puts them: 14 of 16 checks hold on presence); current control of a specific town 49 (access drops to 4 because recent changes follow party claims, verifiability to 3 because nothing is dated; only 7 of 16 checks confirm current, settled control). Provisional desk grade was C ~50; the Burkina and Niger checks raised presence and confirmed the control weakness.
Layers (snapshot 21 Oct 2026)
- IS (150, black): 137 points and 13 polygons. ‘IS Sahel’ districts (Anderamboukane, Azawagh, Akabar, Haoussa, Gourma, Logistics Support Zone, Sokoto, Kebbi) and ‘IS West Africa’ districts (Buhaira, Kirenowa, Banki, Sambisa, Farouq). The 5 described placemarks are all ISWAP polygons labelled with IS’s own internal names (‘Buhaira Province’, ‘Farouq Province’).
- JNIM (57, grey): 16 region-wide multipart polygons (‘JNIM Kayes’, ‘JNIM Burkina Faso’, and also ‘JNIM Benin’, ‘JNIM Togo’, ‘JNIM Ghana’, ‘JNIM Guinea’, ‘JNIM Nigeria’) and 41 points (e.g. Dioura, Tessit, Kouakourou, Dargo, Oursi, Djibo-area villages).
- JNIM/FLA (12, amber): northern Mali (Kidal, Gao, Timbuktu polygons; Tessalit, Abeibara, Talhandak, In Afarak).
- Mali (76), Niger (55), Burkina Faso (43): state-held towns and region polygons. Nigeria (119): every state coloured wholesale, down to Lagos, plus Borno/Yobe garrison towns.
- JAS (29): Bakura’s Lake Chad faction and smaller Gwoza/Mandara groups. CAPITALS (83): regional capitals coloured by holder (10 IS, e.g. Andéramboukane, Tin Akoff, Kirenowa; 1 JNIM/FLA, Tin Zaoutine). Other (18): NW Nigeria bandit polygons (Bello Turji, Ado Aleru, Dogo Gide, Halilu Sububu, Gwaska…), ‘IPOB Presence’ and ‘Farmer-Herder Conflict’.
Spot-checks
| Place | Country | Map holder (21 Oct) | This knowledge base / independent reporting | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intahaka | Mali | Mali | FAMa back ~17–18 Oct 2026 (see Intahaka artisanal gold site) | HIT |
| Dioura | Mali | JNIM | Post abandoned after the Sep attack (FAMa communiqué; Dioura attack (Sep 2026)) | HIT |
| Tessit | Mali | JNIM | FAMa left ~27 Apr 2026; JNIM won the 7 Oct fight there (Mondafrique; Tessit artisanal gold zone) | HIT |
| Talataye, N’daki | Mali | IS | JNIM–ISSP fighting since Sep (JNIM-ISSP Oudalan clashes (Oct 2026)); IS presence right, ‘control’ contested | HIT |
| San | Mali | Mali | Camp briefly occupied 9 Aug, FAMa still there (AFP; San camp attack (Aug 2026)) | HIT |
| Tessalit | Mali | JNIM/FLA | FAMa withdrew Apr 2026, no return recorded; rural Tessalit/Abeibara ‘probably FLA/JNIM’ (Kidal Region) | HIT |
| Andéramboukane | Mali | IS (capital) | ISSP’s de facto capital since 2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And%C3%A9ramboukane | HIT |
| Ménaka | Mali | Mali, ringed by IS areas | Government-held; ISSP assault repelled 28 Apr 2026: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9naka_offensive | HIT |
| Diapaga | Burkina | Burkina (capital) | BIR 27 garrison; JNIM attacks Mar and May 2025; army operations Mar 2026 (Sidwaya, state media): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2025_Diapaga_attack | HIT |
| Djibo | Burkina | Burkina (capital) | Garrison holds, but under JNIM blockade since Feb 2022, overrun for ~9 h on 11 May 2025, assaults repelled Aug 2026 (single video-based report). The map shows none of this: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna206402 | PARTIAL |
| Mansila | Burkina | Burkina | Base overrun Jun 2024 (~100+ soldiers); reoccupied, reachable only by military convoy (Reuters via The Namibian): https://www.namibian.com.na/attack-on-army-base-fuels-burkina-faso-mutiny-rumours/ | PARTIAL |
| Tin Akoff | Burkina | IS (capital) | ISSP took the department after the Feb 2023 battle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tin-Akoff); this knowledge base has ISSP active and JNIM massing nearby (Oct 2026). No 2026 independent confirmation | PARTIAL |
| Makalondi | Niger | Niger | Base overrun 4 Feb 2026, 36 soldiers killed (Blueprint citing security sources): https://blueprint.ng/terrorists-kill-36-nigerien-soldiers-in-coordinated-jihadist-attack/; JNIM IED on the Makalondi road 7 Oct. Re-garrisoning not confirmed | PARTIAL |
| Banibangou | Niger | Niger | Garrison attacked 19 Jun 2025, 34 killed (Niger MoD via AFP): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Banibangou_attack; no 2026 trace | PARTIAL |
| Dargo | Burkina | JNIM | Only JNIM claims (4 Aug 2026 via @abousaib, untraced; a nearby post in Jan 2026 per METIS, a JNIM claim) | UNVERIFIED |
| Labbezanga | Mali | Mali | This knowledge base says ISSP took it in Apr 2026; no independent 2026 report either way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labbezanga | UNVERIFIED |
Score: 9 hits + 5 partials out of 16 checkable = 30 × 11.5/16 ≈ 22/30. The six Mali checks were done against this knowledge base on 21 Oct; the ten others against it plus independent reporting (21 Oct 2026).
Biases (structural, not propagandistic)
- IS-centric. The most granular layer uses IS nomenclature (IS ‘provinces’ and districts) and the described polygons quote IS’s own names. That suggests reliance on IS claims and IS maps, and IS overstates its reach. IS-side fighting claims (e.g. Gonadaouri) show up as IS-held points.
- Points and polygons imply settled control. Garrison towns under blockade (Djibo, Boni, Mansila, Arbinda) look the same as Ouagadougou, and a base overrun and reoccupied (Makalondi) looks untouched. The countryside between points, where most of the fighting is, does not appear at all.
- Uneven coverage. NE Nigeria and the Mali/Niger tri-border are dense (dozens of villages), Burkina’s interior is thin, and Nigerian states are coloured wholesale (Lagos is ‘Nigeria’). JNIM’s coastal polygons (Benin, Togo, Ghana, Guinea) are broad strokes.
- No sources, no dates, no history. Nothing on the map says when a town changed hands or on whose word. Comparing dated snapshots is the only way to date a change.
How to use it
- Read every holder as reported presence, not control: ‘the admin thinks group X operates here’, as of the snapshot date. Never cite it alone for who holds a town; use it to choose what to check.
- The main value is change over time. Comparing dated snapshots shows placemarks reassigned between layers (e.g. Mali → JNIM), added, removed or reshaped. A reassignment dates a reported control change to within the snapshot interval, which the map itself never does. Treat each one as a C3 lead and corroborate it.
- Group areas and group-held points from the 21 Oct 2026 snapshot are drawn as a faint grey underlay, labelled ‘Reported presence*’, on zoom maps A and B and on a separate security map in 03 Resources Map, with the map credited on each image. State-held features are left off. * Not independently confirmed: third-party map (Sahel Monitor’s Google My Maps), grade C.
- Where it disagrees with this knowledge base (next section), the text here stands until better sourcing arrives: a C source does not overturn better-sourced facts.
Disagreements with this knowledge base (21 Oct 2026)
- Labbezanga: map Mali; this knowledge base says ISSP took it in Apr 2026 (April 2026 FLA-JNIM offensive, ISSP). Either FAMa returned unrecorded, or the map is stale.
- Ber, Léré: map Mali; this knowledge base says the posts were handed over in negotiated withdrawals in Apr 2026 (Timbuktu Region).
- Aguelhok (resolved 21 Oct 2026, map was right): this knowledge base had only the May withdrawal; FAMa positions there were attacked on 4 Jul and supplied by convoy in Aug, so it now records a return by early Jul (Kidal Region).
- Gomboro: map Burkina; this knowledge base says JNIM took the barracks and VDP post on 7 and 9 Oct (African Initiative, unverified). Taken-and-left raids are what a point map cannot show.
- Raided but marked state-held (not contradictions, but the map hides them): Makalondi (overrun 4 Feb 2026), Mairari (ISWAP overran the base, Oct 2026), Kawuri (held overnight 27 Sep), Djibo (overrun May 2025).
Relationships
- Maintained by: Sahel Monitor