Sahel Armed Groups & PMCs

Sahel Armed Groups & PMCs: an OSINT knowledge base

5 min read

By Darkwater Research · as of 21 Oct 2026

What this is

A linked knowledge base of the militias, jihadist groups, separatist rebels, private military companies, state forces and coalitions in the Sahel and its spillover zones (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, the Lake Chad basin, north-west Nigeria, northern Benin and Togo), with key events, peace frameworks, resource sites (mines, oil and gas) and a graded note on every monitored source: 145 linked notes in all. Each note links to the actors, regions and events it relates to; the graph view shows the network.

Start here: 01 Situation Report (latest developments) · 03 Resources Map (mines, oil & gas, and how armed actors relate to them) · 02 Source Grading Method.

Method in brief

  • Compiled from open sources only: wire services and the regional press, think tanks and conflict datasets (ACLED, Crisis Group, ISS, the Africa Center), and public Telegram, X and Discord channels from every side of the conflict, including junta, Russian, jihadist and rebel outlets.
  • Every monitored channel is graded with a published rubric and spot-checked against independent reporting; the checks are listed in each source note under Sources.
  • Channel claims are corroborated where possible and always carry their tag, so a reader can see where each claim came from and how far to trust it.

How to read the claim tags

Claims from monitored channels end with a tag such as (C3, Sahel Monitor, t.me/sahelmonitor/505, 19 Oct 2026):

  • Letter = the source’s Admiralty reliability grade, A (most reliable) to E, or F when it cannot be judged.
  • Digit = the credibility of that specific claim: 1 confirmed, 2 probably true, 3 possibly true, 4 doubtful, 5 improbable, 6 cannot be judged.
  • Then the source note, the post and the post date.

The full rubric and every grade are in 02 Source Grading Method.

Caveats

  • Party claims. The information space is heavily contested: junta and Russian outlets, jihadist claims and rebel communiqués all inflate figures. Claims are attributed to the party that made them.
  • Unverified figures. Most casualty numbers are party claims or single-source reports and are not independently verified. The confidence field marks less certain entries.
  • Approximate coordinates. Site and event locations are approximate (town-level or schematic), not precise positions.

Independent, unpaid research. Not legal, security or investment advice. Corrections welcome.

Contact: gnorwood@darkwater-research.com

Index

All notes by type. Each tag in the legend at the bottom opens a list of that type. Third-party territorial-control map (reported presence, not control): Sahel control map (Google My Maps).

Jihadist - al-Qaeda network

Jihadist - Islamic State network

Separatist & rebel

Pro-government militias

Community & ethnic militias

Bandit & criminal groups

PMCs & Contractors

State Actors

Coalitions

Regions

Peace Processes & Frameworks

Resource Sites

Key Events

Sources

Legend (graph colours)

Built in Obsidian; published with Quartz.

Graph View